A wave of new liquefied natural gas supply is bearing down on global markets, and the question of who will buy it is now shaping investment decisions across Africa. Standard Bank Group gas sector lead Paul Eardley-Taylor expects a market glut from 2029 that could persist for two to three years, forcing producers to hunt for fresh demand. For investors and operators, that search is turning attention to sub-Saharan Africa, where South Africa, Kenya, Ivory Coast and Namibia may become the region’s next LNG importers.
The scale of the coming supply is substantial. Roughly 250-million tonnes a year of LNG capacity is under construction worldwide, led by the US, while Mozambique is also expected to add significant volumes. That expansion increases the supply available to buyers and, in Eardley-Taylor’s view, makes new markets essential for producers seeking returns on capital already committed to projects.
Speaking at Africa Energy Week in Cape Town this week, where he presented his outlook on Africa’s gas industry, Eardley-Taylor framed the opportunity through the lens of infrastructure spending. South Africa has recently announced plans to expand gas-fired power generation, with imported LNG expected to play a major part, but that ambition hinges on investment in import infrastructure. Without terminals and pipelines, the commercial case for suppliers and financiers alike weakens considerably.
Supply security is also reshaping the investment map. The disruption to oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz has underlined the value of diversifying supply routes and sources, and Eardley-Taylor identified Nigeria and Mozambique as potential suppliers of significant LNG volumes outside established shipping chokepoints. For buyers weighing long-term contracts, that geographic spread reduces risk. For producers, it opens a competitive lane into markets previously underserved.
Mozambique already exports LNG and has further projects under construction, with a final investment decision on the proposed Rovuma project expected in late 2026. Nigeria plans to lift its LNG export capacity from 2027. Both countries are positioning to capture a share of the demand that a post-2029 glut will make harder to find elsewhere.
By contrast, Ivory Coast offers an early template for how new import markets take shape. The country is developing gas-fired power generation to meet rising electricity demand and has signed a 10-year agreement with Exmar, a Belgian gas shipping and infrastructure company, for a floating storage and regasification unit to receive LNG. Deals of this kind give shippers contracted volumes and give importing countries access to gas without the full upfront cost of onshore terminals, a structure that may appeal to other governments in the region.
Yet Eardley-Taylor cautioned that such projects, while potentially creating markets for the additional supply, depend on import infrastructure and sufficient demand to be viable. His warning carries weight for anyone underwriting African gas ventures: capital committed to terminals, pipelines and power plants needs a revenue base to service it.
“The growth of new supply will not automatically translate into lower prices or viable projects for African buyers,” Eardley-Taylor said. “Countries will need to develop import terminals, pipelines and power infrastructure, while securing financing and sufficient demand to support investment.”
The message to markets is that a supply glut does not guarantee cheap gas for African buyers, nor assured returns for producers. The winners will be those who can assemble the financing, build the receiving infrastructure and lock in enough demand to make the economics work. For South Africa and its neighbours, the next few years will determine whether they become part of that story or watch the opportunity pass to better-prepared competitors.