For South African families, the week’s economic news arrived in its most familiar form: the price at the pump. Petrol goes up by R3.33 a litre in October, with another rise possible in November, and economists warn inflation could climb above 5%. That prospect lands on households already stretched thin by rising living costs. Transport inflation accelerated to 10.8% year on year after September’s fuel price increases, contributing 1.5 percentage points to the headline rate, according to Dr Lerato Ntuli, economist at Anchor Capital.
The monthly inflation figures offered a mixed picture. Statistics South Africa reported that annual inflation rose to 4.5% in September, up from 4.4% in August and 4.3% in July. Johann Els, chief economist at PSG Financial Services, noted that the September figure came in slightly lower than expected, with slower rental inflation providing a positive surprise. Food inflation remained relatively low and consumer goods inflation was well contained. Some relief, then, but perhaps not for long.
Annabel Bishop, chief economist at Investec, warned that persistently high inflation could bring another 25-basis-point interest rate increase, potentially in November or January next year. For families with loans, that would mean costlier borrowing and a longer wait for rate relief.
Meanwhile, the mood in the business community mirrors the pressure on consumers. The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s Business Confidence Index fell by 0.8 points to 134.3 in September, though it remained 10.9 points higher than a year earlier. SACCI credited stronger inbound tourism, new vehicle sales, retail sales and higher merchandise export volumes for the year-on-year improvement, while higher energy prices, lower import volumes and a decline in the real value of building plans passed worked the other way.
Professor Waldo Krugell, an economist at North-West University, said the figures pointed to a slowdown in demand and consumer spending. He warned that sustained high fuel prices, rising inflation and higher interest rates could weaken household spending, reduce business sales and lead companies to postpone investment. Dr Simphiwe Madikizela, a senior lecturer at Unisa’s Graduate School of Business Leadership, added that businesses remain sensitive to external shocks because oil price uncertainty makes it harder to forecast operating expenses, set prices and plan investment.
The oil price sat at the centre of the week’s turbulence. Brent crude traded at $113.55 a barrel on Friday morning, up 0.34%, after pushing above $112 on Thursday afternoon as escalating security concerns in the Middle East stoked fears of supply disruptions. Because South Africa imports crude oil and refined petroleum products, movements in international energy markets feed directly into the import bill, fuel costs, transport expenses and inflation.
The currency told a story of hope and reversal. The rand initially strengthened after Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana presented the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement on Wednesday, with investors responding positively to the Treasury’s commitment to fiscal discipline. It opened at R16.38 against the dollar on Thursday, but weakened through the day, trading at R16.52 against the dollar, R22.08 against the pound and R18.50 against the euro by the afternoon. At Friday’s open it stood at R16.51 against the dollar, R22.11 against the pound and R18.51 against the euro. Gold had slipped 0.23% to $4 014.76 an ounce.
Bianca Botes, managing director at Citadel Global, said the weaker US dollar had initially supported the rand before geopolitical developments weighed on the currency. Maarten Ackerman, chief economist at CAM Asset Management, attributed the rand’s early strength to the market’s positive response to the MTBPS, noting that expectations of a higher primary surplus and lower government bond issuance had reinforced confidence in the fiscal outlook. He also said the government’s ability to contain the debt to GDP trajectory and reduce its borrowing requirements had supported that confidence, though the growth outlook remains a concern, with the economic environment having deteriorated since the February Budget.
By contrast, producers in the red meat industry faced a different kind of disruption. A foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in Namibia led to the suspension of livestock movements and related products between the two countries, affecting the supply of weaner calves and slaughter sheep and driving sharp price increases in parts of the South African market. Dr Frikkie Maré, chief executive of the Red Meat Producers Organisation, said weaner calves were reportedly selling for between R57 and R60 a kilogram at auctions, while the A2 lamb carcass price had risen by about R9 a kilogram week on week in some areas. The outbreak shows how animal disease restrictions can ripple through to producers, processors and, ultimately, shoppers.
Amid the pressures, African business leaders remain relatively confident. KPMG’s 2026 Africa CEO Outlook survey found that 72% of African CEOs were confident in their domestic economies and 79% in their own organisations’ growth prospects, though only 58% expected annual earnings growth of at least 2.5% over the next three years, compared with 68% of CEOs globally. Frank Blackmore, lead economist at KPMG South Africa, said African CEOs had been forced to adapt to uncertainty by strengthening supply chains, attracting talent and addressing questions around artificial intelligence. The survey highlighted a gap between ambition and readiness: 72% of African CEOs identified AI as a top investment priority, yet only 14% believed their organisations were keeping pace with or ahead of developments in the technology. Cybersecurity, data security and supply chain resilience ranked among the leading threats to growth.
For ordinary South Africans, the week’s takeaway is a familiar one. The MTBPS has offered some reassurance about the management of public finances, but whether that confidence translates into investment, jobs and stronger economic activity will determine what families and businesses actually feel in the months ahead.